0 A cast of Egyptian characters Mohammed Badie Leader of the Muslim Brotherhood Pope Shenuda III Leader of the Coptic Church Naguib Mahfouz Egyptian novelist.

Presentation on theme: "0 A cast of Egyptian characters Mohammed Badie Leader of the Muslim Brotherhood Pope Shenuda III Leader of the Coptic Church Naguib Mahfouz Egyptian novelist."— Presentation transcript:

1 0 A cast of Egyptian characters Mohammed Badie Leader of the Muslim Brotherhood Pope Shenuda III Leader of the Coptic Church Naguib Mahfouz Egyptian novelist Field Marshal Tantawi Chairman of the SCAF

2 1 1952: Free Officers Coup; Muhammed Naguib is President 1956: Aswan Dam plan/Nationalization of the Suez; Nasser becomes President 1958-1961: United Arab Republic with Syria 1967: 6-Day War; beginning of “state of emergency” 1970: Death of Nasser; accession of Sadat (“Nasser’s poodle”) 1973: War with Israel (“the crossing”) 1974: Launch of economic restructuring “infitah” 1977: Sadat visits Israel 1979: Camp David Accords: peace with Israel, return of the Sinai, expulsion from the Arab League 1981: Assassination of Sadat; accession of Mubarak mid-1980s: Wafd party competes in elections again; Muslim Brotherhood unofficially competes; then increasing political closure 1989: Egypt readmitted to the Arab League 1991: Egypt fights against Iraq in the Gulf War mid-1990s: Islamist revolt; attempts to bring down the government; assassination attempt on Mubarak (1995) 2004: Increasing, organized popular protest; renewal of Islamist attacks 2005: first Presidential election installs Mubarak for a 5 th term; parliamentary elections give the Muslim Brotherhood a substantial minority position 2006-2009: Internal debates over Mubarak’s successor; tightening up on reform 2010: Parliamentary elections are widely seen as fraudulent; NDP dominates 2011: President Mubarak ousted in a massive 18-day popular revolution Timeline of key events in Egypt

3 2 Presidency – Source of most political power – Appoints executive cabinet – Hosni Mubarak was one of the longest serving world leaders (30 years) People’s Assembly (Majlis al-Sha’ab) – 454 members; drafts legislation in conjunction with the cabinet – Dominated by the President’s NDP party, with scattered representation from independents and opposition parties Consultative Council (Majlis al-Shura) – Advisory body only; 1/3 appointed by the President Governing structures under Mubarak President Mubarak Gamal Mubarak

4 3 Presidency – Source of most political power – Appoints executive cabinet – Hosni Mubarak was one of the longest serving world leaders (30 years) People’s Assembly (Majlis al-Sha’ab) – 454 members; drafts legislation in conjunction with the cabinet – Dominated by the President’s NDP party, with scattered representation from independents and opposition parties Consultative Council (Majlis al-Shura) – Advisory body only; 1/3 appointed by the President Governing structures under Mubarak

5 4 Economic policy – State-led development vs. Capitalism – Role of the infitah Poverty/Unemployment – State subsidies on employment and food – Massive underemployment and inequality Foreign policy – Cold war neutral (initial Nasserite position) – Pro-Soviet (1954-1971) – Pro-Western (1974-present) – At the center of the Arab-Israeli conflict Religion – Keeping Islamists out of the state – Keeping tensions between Muslims and Copts minimal Civil society – Limited freedom of the Media and organizations – Corruption issues Political stagnation and the possibility of protest Key political issues

6 5 Patterns of political liberalization –Tradition of restricted political pluralism under the British/King Faruq –One-party state until Sadat legalized 3 parties in 1976 National Democratic Party (NDP) as a centrist party; with two legal opposition parties on the center-right and center-left –Mubarak expanded the number of legal parties to 13 in the 1980s Key political parties –National Democratic Party –Old opposition parties: New Wafd, Labor –Opposition parties are historically very weak and have a small political base Barriers to free competition –Structural barriers to participation –High levels of political apathy –Exclusion of parties based on class or religion –Muslim Brotherhood illegal, but participated as a collection of independents Restricted political liberalization and political parties

7 6 The 2000 elections –The NDP did not do well, got under ½ of the seats –But those that did well as independents were friendly to the government and joined the NDP in parliament, so the control of parliament was never in doubt –Muslim Brotherhood independents did very well, but ran in fewer constituencies The 2005 and 2007 elections –First presidential elections in 2005; Mubarak dominant; relatively low turnout –Increasing number of political protests –Appearance of new political movements and parties (Kifaya and al-Ghad) –Muslim Brotherhood is a scare for the regime in 2005, doing better than anticipated –Brotherhood increasingly excluded in the 2007 shura council elections How should we understand top-down political liberalization of Egypt? –Parliament has remained weak –Campaign issues have revolved around political process, not just distributive issues –What role has international pressure played? Recent elections Ayman Nour of al-Ghad Kifayya protest

8 The 2000 elections –The NDP did not do well, got under ½ of the seats –But those that did well as independents were friendly to the government and joined the NDP in parliament, so the control of parliament was never in doubt –Muslim Brotherhood independents did very well, but ran in fewer constituencies The 2005 and 2007 elections –First presidential elections in 2005; Mubarak dominant; relatively low turnout –Increasing number of political protests –Appearance of new political movements and parties (Kifaya and al-Ghad) –Muslim Brotherhood is a scare for the regime in 2005, doing better than anticipated –Brotherhood increasingly excluded in the 2007 shura council elections How should we understand top-down political liberalization of Egypt? –Parliament has remained weak –Campaign issues have revolved around political process, not just distributive issues –What role has international pressure played? Recent elections

9 8 Home of the Islamist movement –Home of the Muslim Brotherhood and Sayyid Qutb –Long tradition of Islamist opposition to the state –Also strong neo-Sufi movement going on these days The state under fire –Mid-1990s was the high point of Islamist radicalism –Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya took over Imbaba and declared it an Islamic Republic –Islamist assassinations of prominent political and judicial officials –Attacks on intellectuals, writers, tourists –Massive state retaliation in the mid-1990s –Increasing state control over private mosques, prayer leaders (imams) Split in Islamist movements –Younger generation of Muslim Brotherhood split off and formed the al-Wasat (center) party in 1996 –Have constraints led to moderation? Is this a good outcome for the state? Egyptian Islamists and the state

10 9 Context –National Democratic Party (NDP) dominates through managed electoral competition –Economic growth, then crisis, with rising prices –Military is popular but has entrenched economic interests Causes –Grievances –Corruption amid economic expansion led to a 2-tier society –Stark lack of opportunity among educated youth –2010 elections were too fraudulent, causing challengers to doubt participation –Opportunities –Divisions and uncertainty over who would succeed the aging Mubarak –Collective network built around “kefaya” movement and 2004-2005 protests –Online protest networks: “April 6 Movement” and “We are all Khaled Said” –Tunisian example caught the public imagination Development –Gradual agreement to some political reforms as popular demands kept increasing –Attempts to use vigilantes to deter the protesters –Military strategy finally fails and key officers decide to sacrifice Mubarak –Cautious rule by military tribunal in preparation for elections (SCAF) –Continued popular protest against the slow pace of reforms and lack of accountability Revolution and the potential for change in Egypt

11 10 Egypt Timeline: Jan 25 1 st “day of revolt” Curfew broken; Mubarak dismisses govt. Jan 26 Crackdown on protests Jan 27 Military leaves protesters alone Jan 28 VP Suleiman appointed Jan 29 Protests build; el- Baradei returns Jan 30 Mubarak says he’ll quit in Sept Major clashes with riot police Jan 28Feb 1 Pro- vs. anti- Mubarak clashes. Feb 2Feb 5 NDP rulers resign; talks with opposition Feb 11 Mubarak ousted